Opiniones – Noticias

Este enlace conduce a un breve informe que  hace un repaso a la información económica y social relevante en la ciudad de Detroit. Desde sus mejores momentos, allá por 1950 cuando era la cuarta ciudad más próspera de Estados Unidos, hasta la fecha el giro ha sido impresionante. Como ejemplo, alrededor de 78.000 viviendas desocupadas y en situación de abandono. Hoy cerca del 47% de la población no tiene formación académica. Aproximadamente un 60% de los niños viven en situación de pobreza…  

Phillips Baker, CEO de la compañia minera Hecla Mining -HL- especializada en Plata, vaticina continuidad en las caídas de los metales preciosos, vean enlace PLATA, Semanal

John Mauldin, agudo analista financiero y escritor, dispone de una página web en la cual da cabida a reconocidos personajes del mundo de las finanzas. En el siguiente enlace THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO HMMM… se puede acceder a un interesante artículo escrito por Grant Williams el pasado 22 de abril titulado Bulls Hit, cuyo índice anticipo a continuación esperando disfruten de la lectura: Reinhart, Rogoff… And Herndon: The Student Who Caught Out the Profs How Europe’s Crisis Countries Hide Their Wealth After the Flash Crash Why Can’t the IMF Face Up to the Truth About the Failing Euro? Central Banks Find Stimulus Glitter in Gold Slump Understanding German Politics The Oracle’s Oracle That Swooning Feeling Japan Joins Ugly Contest with Tsunami of Money

Breve artículo explicando la activación reciente, el pasado 15 de mes, de este indicador asociado a mercado peligroso porque suele anticipar correcciones significativas, vean

La Universidad de Massachussets ha elaborado un estudio sobre el que presentaron los profesores de Harvard Carmen Reinhart y Kenneth Rogoff en su libro «Esta vez es diferente», en el que refutan alguna de las máximas defendidas por culpa de errores de cálculo, que por otra parte, los editores parece han reconocido refiriéndose a error de hoja de cálculo pero manteniendo las principales tesis intactas. La principal es afirmar que cuando un país supera el umbral del 90% en su ratio de Deuda-PIB, las posibilidades de crecimiento económico merman y queda abocado a sufrir duras consecuencias. Leer detalles en el Next New Deal o HuffingtonPost

Carmen Reinhart, profesora en Harvard, y coescritora junto con Kenneth Rogoff del libro «Esta vez es diferente». Recomendable  libro en el que analiza exhaustivamente la historia de los excesos, burbujas y crisis económicas y bancarias globales del último siglo, ha concedido una interesante entrevista a la que pueden acceder en -inglés- el siguiente enlace

Hace unos días, leí un interesante artículo en el que el autor, Michael Snider,  expone 20 argumentos por los que próximos meses podrían ser devastadores. 20 Signs The Next Few Months Could Be Devastating  

The January Barometer – As the S&P500 Goes in January, So Goes The Year. When the month of January records a gain, as measured by the S&P500 Index, history suggests that the rest of the year will serve as a benefactor, and finish in the black as well. Since 1950, this indicator has an incredible 88.7% accuracy ratio. This number also includes 2012, as January closed the month up 4.35% and the S&P500 is on pace to finish positive for the year. Down Januarys Serve as a Warning – According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, every down January for the S&P500 since 1950, without exception, preceded a new or extended bear market, flat market, or a 10% correction. 12 bear markets began, and ten continued into second years with poor Januarys. When the first month of the year has been down, the rest of the year followed with an average loss of 13.9%. In most years, these declines later provided excellent buying opportunities. For example, 2008 was the worst January on record and preceded the worst bear market since the Great Depression. But 2009 proved to be one of the greatest buying opportunities in American history. First Five Days in

Byron Wien, Vice Chairman of Blackstone (BX) Advisory Partners, yesterday issued his list of «The Ten Surprises for 2013.″ This is the 28th year Byron has given his predictions of a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a «surprise» as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which he believes is «probable», having a better than 50% likelihood of happening. Byron started the tradition in 1986 when he was the Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley. He joined the Blackstone Group in September 2009. Surprises for 2013 1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention. 2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard

1. Global growth: A ‘hump’ to get over, then a clear road ahead 2. More unconventional easing in the G4 3. Termites eat away at the foundations of the ‘search for yield’ 4. Housing stabilisation and private-sector healing in the US 5. Euro area a smaller driver of global risk, but still a source of tails 6. Continued divergence between core and periphery in the Euro area 7. EM growth pick-up revisits capacity constraints 8. EM differentiation continues 9. Commodity constraint to loosen in the medium term 10. Stable China growth, but not like the old days