Atención al informe de Merril´s Quant Strategy Group, indicando que el comportamiento de los distintos inversores desde el suelo del lunes, compras de inversor retail y ventas de institucionales, enriquece la idea de que el repunte experimentado por el mercado estos días es un mero rebote técnico, en parte debido al maquillaje usual de final de trimestre, y conviene ser cauteloso.
Veamos a continuación 4 importantes puntos del informe:
1.-Not only did the retail, what Merrill terms their «private client» segment, do all of the buying – they bought all ten S&P sectors on a net basis. Also amazing. This is only the eighth week in which retail investors have done this kind of broad-market buying since 2008. The last time we saw them buy the whole market was in January.
2.-The hedge fund segment sold again last week, three in a row. They are now net sellers of the equity market on the year – they were only net buyers during the March and April period of new highs, because, en masse, they are essentially benchmark-chasing pussies who jump in and out of the tape like they’re «managing risk» and then lever up like maniacs when they begin to trail the markets (not BofA’s words, mine).
3.-Small caps saw net sales from all three groups.
4.-While all three segments – private client, hedge fund and institutional – posted a combined a net sale of stocks last week, the one sector that all three groups actually added to was Technology. It was a record week for flows into tech stocks, the first over $1 billion week since 2008. BofA has previously determined that tech is actually the best performing sector during periods of rising interest rates so this makes sense.
Por tanto, atención a este dato, cuando los menos informados -retail- compran las acciones que les colocan los más informados -hedges e instituciones- en zona de máximos, es síntoma de que están distribuyendo papel y suele anticipar caídas.